Bitcoin Price Analysis Sep.25: Optimism has disappeared?

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After almost a week full of optimism, Bitcoin takes a dive: Breaks the ascending trend-line and the 200 days moving average (pink line on the chart) at $6660, re-test it now as resistance and from there a free-fall, breaking the important 50 days moving average (purple line on the chart) to the major support level at $6400.

Why was that when we were all optimistic? a reason might be the SEC’s unclear statement about the ETF. It was indeed delayed, but there is still a situation of the SEC rejecting the ETF before the original deadline on Sep.30.

Now what?

  • As of writing this, the $6400 seems to hold and we might see a little correction to re-test the 50 days moving average from below, this time as resistance. There also lies the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
  • Or else, this move might end in the support level and ascending line around $6300. Next support areas lies on $6100 and $6000.
  • Again: To declare an end to the long bear market, Bitcoin will need to create a higher low and break past $7300 (the last major high on the weekly chart), now it seems even further.
  • From the bull side, $6520 and $6660 are now support-turned resistance levels. $6800 is still the major resistance area Bitcoin had failed to overcome.
  • Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Stochastic RSI indicator is very low, market is oversold. This supports the option for a correction back to re-test prior resistance.
  • Also, Bitcoin short positions on BitFinex had been decreased significantly.
  • Trading volume, typically to weekends, is relatively low.

Bitcoin Prices: BTC/USD BitFinex 4 Hours chart

BTC_sep25Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView. Technical analysis tools by Coinigy.

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